For investors who only recently started participating in the stock market, 2018 has been a trying year so far. While returns are only down a few percentage points from the start of the year, February, March and April have included dramatic selloffs followed by strong rebounds.
Is there this volatility a problem? In short, no.
Volatility fluctuates based on where we are in the business cycle, but it is a normal feature of markets that investors should expect.
Right now, we are in the later stages of a long period of expansion that followed the financial crisis of 2008. Markets have enjoyed years of calm brought about by a gradually improving global economy, low interest rates and a Federal Reserve that was reluctant to pull back on unconventional monetary policies, like quantitative easing, until the economy was on firmer footing.
That started to change recently as global economic growth picked up speed, raising concerns about inflation and what that could mean for the future path of monetary policy. While a small amount of inflation is good for markets, too much can prompt the Federal Reserve to put the brakes on economic growth through higher interest rates, which of course negatively affects corporate profitability. So far, the uptick in volatility seems attributable to this increase in uncertainty as well as the market’s way of working out some of the complacency that had begun to take hold among investors.
I’m still positive on market’s prospects in the short- to medium-term. Today’s levels of volatility may seem extreme, but that’s only because they follow the very low levels of the last few years, especially the extremely unusual calm of last year.
As is typical at these junctures in the market cycle, the headline-grabbing down days have been reliably followed by rebounds. But at some point along the way, the market will head lower because growth will eventually stall. Recessions are a feature of market economies, and the eventuality of another one is as inevitable as the turning of the seasons. When it does come, markets will decline and real losses will be felt by investors.
Common Investing Mistakes
Does that mean you should sell now? Not necessarily. The next recession could be months or even years away. It’s extremely difficult to predict the timing with the accuracy needed to profit from such a prediction.
More to the point, it is easy to get such a prediction wrong, which can be costly. While we do tilt our portfolios more aggressively or more conservatively based on our market outlook, individual investors who radically reposition out of stocks in an attempt to catch the tip of a market top reliably miss out on more gains rather than prevent losses.
While “buy low, sell high” may sound like time-honored advice, it rarely is a good way to make decisions in practice. Indeed, individual investors who stay in cash waiting for a bear market to come and go, often lose patience as it continues to go up. This results in their missing out on gains rather than preventing losses--not to mention incurring tax and transaction costs. That costly mistake is the reciprocal of another, wherein panicking investors sell during a major selloff, and remain on the sidelines too long as stocks rebound, effectively locking in their losses.
There is a caveat to the generally superior buy-and-hold approach. Seeing a paper loss in your portfolio doesn’t feel good. Some investors would rather take less risk, which may mean giving up some long-term returns, in order to reduce the period of time they may need to wait out losses and have smoother sailing.
Consider Your Goals
Another caveat to the buy-and-hold idea comes when investors take a goals-oriented approach. If you are saving towards a goal and have made good progress, it may make sense to take on less risk, regardless of the market outlook. This is for two reasons. First, it makes less sense to take risk when you have more to lose than to gain. Second, for additional peace of mind that your progress won’t be jeopardized, you may desire that smoother sailing that can come from a more conservative blend of stocks, bonds and cash.
If, like many of us, you have more progress to make and more road to travel towards achieving your goals, riding out the market’s jitters can be the best advice. Our research shows that markets are most predictable when you have a seven- to 10-year time horizon (due to how well current yields and valuations predict returns over those horizons). Our forecasts continue to suggest that stocks will outperform bonds and cash over that time horizon.
Bottom line: Investing is a long-term proposition and having a long-term horizon is your best strategy as an investor.